The Orioles were supposed to be inevitable by now. Two years ago they had baseball’s best farm system, a pipeline that spat out three straight No. 1 overall prospects in Adley Rutschman, Gunnar Henderson and Jackson Holliday. The future was bright, and it was supposed to arrive fast.
Instead, Baltimore is sitting at 46-51, fourth in the AL East, and the only inevitability so far is disappointment. Injuries wrecked last season and they’re wrecking this one too. The rotation is thin. The lineup is underperforming. And yet, according to reports, the front office still wants to be buyers at the trade deadline rather than sellers.
That logic gets harder to defend by the day. The Rays have been baseball’s biggest surprise. The Yankees are doing what the Yankees do. The Red Sox, who looked like obvious sellers a month ago, have stormed past Baltimore in the standings. The Orioles are running out of real estate.
There’s a scenario where they pivot and sell. Rutschman’s name has already floated around in trade rumors. But the biggest move they could make right now isn’t selling off pieces. It’s adding the right one. They’re only a couple games out of a playoff spot, and the bullpen is the place to start.
Baltimore’s bullpen is a mess
The young bats might still figure it out. Gunnar Henderson, Jackson Holliday, Colton Cowser — they’ve got the talent. But banking on an offensive breakout in August is risky. The pitching, on the other hand, is an immediate problem.
Ryan Helsley has been the team’s best reliever, but he’s on the shelf with an injury and might not be back until August. Keegan Akin, Colin Selby and Felix Bautista are all on the 60-day IL. Bautista could return late in the season, but counting on him to be his old dominant self is a gamble the Orioles can’t afford.
Relief pitching is the obvious need. The problem is that everyone needs relief pitching. Reports indicate only six teams might end up being sellers at this deadline, which means the buyers will be tripping over each other trying to land arms. It’s a seller’s market.
One reliever makes too much sense
The Royals are expected to sell, and Kansas City has a guy who fits Baltimore perfectly: Carlos Estevez. He’s a flamethrower with closer experience, the kind of arm who can take over the ninth inning until Helsley returns and then slide into a setup role when the bullpen is whole.
Estevez led the majors in saves last season. He’s a two-time All-Star whose control has caught up with his velocity. He’s not a rental, necessarily — there’s a club option involved — but he’s also not going to cost a fortune. The Orioles still have some intriguing pieces in their farm system, even after all those graduations.
There’s a catch, though. Estevez has dealt with his own shoulder injury this season and has only pitched one game. If that shoulder keeps him out, there’s no deal. But the latest reports suggest he’s trending toward a return. If Baltimore is serious about buying, and if Estevez is healthy, this is the move that makes the most sense.
The Orioles have to decide soon whether they’re contenders or pretenders. One good reliever won’t fix everything. But it might be enough to keep the door open.
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