We’re down to four at the 2026 World Cup and somehow the bracket feels both inevitable and completely unhinged. England versus Argentina in one semifinal. France versus Spain in the other. If you had this exact final four in your office pool, you’re either lying or you should buy a lottery ticket immediately.
Argentina’s path here has been weirdly stressful for a defending champion. They drew Cape Verde, Egypt and Switzerland. That is a group stage designed by a video game on easy mode. And yet they needed to sweat in every single one of those games. Then Switzerland pushed them into extra time in the quarterfinals. Lionel Messi looks tired. Like, visibly tired. The Inter Miami star has been carrying this team the way he always does, but there’s a difference between magical and mortal. He’s veering closer to the latter right now. The lack of pace and width in this squad has been exposed repeatedly and if Argentina can’t find another gear, England’s physicality on Wednesday might just bury them.
England, meanwhile, are doing the thing they always do. They look shaky against teams they should dominate, they create just enough magic to survive and they defend like their lives depend on it. Thomas Tuchel has this group playing the same script England have followed since 2018. Jude Bellingham is the difference maker. The Real Madrid star has already bailed them out multiple times in this tournament and his importance to England is basically a mirror image of Messi’s role for Argentina. But what separates this England team from previous iterations is the bench. Norway were the better side for most of that quarterfinal. They probably should have won it in regulation. But Tuchel threw on Bukayo Saka, Djed Spence and Dan Burn and suddenly the game flipped. Saka was electric down the right. Burn turned into a human cross eraser. That depth is real.
France Finally Looks Fun and That’s Terrifying
Didier Deschamps spent 14 years coaching France to play the most conservative, risk-averse, borderline boring football imaginable. It worked, obviously. They won a World Cup and reached another final. But watching a squad full of superstars play like they were terrified of making a mistake was exhausting. Now, in his final tournament as manager, Deschamps has let the leash go. Part of that is necessity — Aurelien Tchouameni’s injury took away the three-man midfield option, and Deschamps apparently decided against calling up N’Golo Kante. So he’s playing with four attackers instead.
The result has been genuinely beautiful to watch. Kylian Mbappe is already a nightmare. Surround him with Ballon d’Or winner Ousmane Dembele, Michael Olise and either Desire Doue or Bradley Barcola and it becomes almost unfair. The decision to move Olise central after he started on the right in the group stage opener against Senegal has been a masterstroke. The Bayern Munich man has been France’s best player so far. Any team hoping to stop France has to figure him out first.
Spain were my pick to win the whole thing before the tournament. The way they played at Euro 2024 was gorgeous. They beat France and England playing beautiful football. But this summer has been different. They’ve been far more conservative and it’s directly tied to the fitness of Lamine Yamal and Nico Williams. Yamal has been dealing with a hamstring injury since the end of the club season and hasn’t looked like himself. Williams has barely played since picking up a muscular injury against Uruguay. Spain have managed without him — they’ve conceded only one goal in six matches — but there’s no replacing that kind of spark. The sight of Williams coming off the bench for the final 10 minutes against Belgium in the quarterfinals was probably the most encouraging moment for Spanish fans all tournament. He changes games. They need him to change at least one more.
Four teams left. Two spots in the final. Something’s got to give.
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