The 2026 Home Run Derby is set for Citizens Bank Park, and the betting favorites are exactly who you’d expect. Kyle Schwarber leads the board at +290. Bryce Harper, the hometown hero, sits at +900. But look a little further down the odds board and there’s a name that should make everyone nervous: Junior Caminero.
Caminero comes in at roughly +380, and that number might feel short if you’ve been watching him lately. He just finished June with 10 home runs and four doubles. July started the same way — five bombs already. His OPS is sitting at .927, he’s got 28 homers and 59 RBIs on the year, and he ranks fourth in the majors in long balls. The guy is seeing the ball like it’s beachball-sized.
Last year he lost to Cal Raleigh in the final. He was close, really close. And that kind of loss tends to stick with a player. Now he’s back, and the new 20-swing first-round format might actually play to his strengths. He’s not a guy who needs 50 swings to find his rhythm. Give him the right pitches and he’ll punish them.
The Field Is Stacked
This year’s lineup includes eight names: Schwarber, Harper, Caminero, Ben Rice, Munetaka Murakami, Willson Contreras, Jac Caglianone, and Jordan Walker. It’s one of the deepest groups MLB has put together in years. Any of them could win on the right night. But the difference between Caminero and some of the others is that he’s entering the break as the hottest hitter in the sport. That momentum is real.
Schwarber, for his part, can hit almost anything out of the park. He’s the favorite for a reason. But Caminero has the raw power to match him, and he’s got the extra motivation of doing it in enemy territory. Citizens Bank Park will be loud. Mostly for the Phillies. But a few moonshots from Caminero could quiet that crowd fast.
What to Watch For
The format change matters. Twenty swings in the first round means less room for error. Players have to be selective, find their pitch early, and make every swing count. That plays into Caminero’s approach. He’s disciplined at the plate and he doesn’t chase often. If he gets into a groove early, he could put up a number that forces everyone else to chase him.
And yeah, there’s a chance he hits the longest home run of the night too. His raw exit velocities are among the best in the game. It wouldn’t be a shock to see him launch one 450-plus feet into the Philadelphia night.
The betting markets have Schwarber as the guy to beat. But the guy who almost won last year, who’s been crushing the ball for two straight months, and who’s playing with something to prove? He’s the one I’d keep an eye on.
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