Shane Bieber won a Cy Young without throwing 100 mph. Trevor Bauer thinks that tells you everything you need to know about how pitchers actually develop. And for a Blue Jays team stuck at 44-49 and watching their veteran right-hander look nothing like himself, Bauer’s breakdown cuts both ways.
Bauer posted a thread on X analyzing Bieber’s career arc. The former MLB pitcher argued that Bieber’s early success wasn’t a fluke or some lucky stretch. It was built on something most casual fans don’t value enough.
“Shane Bieber never looked like an ace. 91-93 mph, no electric stuff. But he won a Cy Young. Here’s why that makes sense,” Bauer wrote. “Most people think you need to throw hard or have nasty stuff to make it to the big leagues. That’s not the only path. The real question is: what elite tool do you have? For Bieber, it was command. He never walks anybody. That’s not a small thing — that’s an elite weapon. Pair that with good pitch shapes and you have a real pitcher, even without the velocity.”
Bauer then pointed to what pushed Bieber from good to great. “But then something happened. He added velocity. He added more pitch shapes. He developed. And when you stack elite command on top of improved stuff, you get a Cy Young winner.”
Here’s the problem. That command Bauer identified as Bieber’s foundation? It’s been crumbling in Toronto this season. Bieber got traded from Cleveland last year and the Blue Jays hoped they were getting a frontline starter who could anchor a rotation. Instead they’ve gotten a pitcher fighting through injuries and struggling to locate the way he used to. When your whole game depends on not walking guys and you start walking guys, the whole thing wobbles.
Bieber’s numbers this year aren’t just bad. They’re the kind of numbers that make you wonder if the underlying skill is still there. The command Bauer described as an “elite weapon” has turned ordinary. And without that, the velocity bump and extra pitch shapes don’t matter much because hitters aren’t afraid of falling behind in the count anymore.
Bauer’s analysis is interesting on its own — a former teammate and fellow pitcher breaking down the mechanics of development in a way most fans never hear. But for Guardians and Blue Jays fans, it’s also a reminder of what Bieber used to be. The Guardians traded him at the right time, essentially. Toronto is stuck trying to figure out whether the old Bieber is still in there somewhere or whether this version is just what happens when an elite command pitcher loses feel even for that one elite tool.
The Blue Jays need him to find it soon. Their season isn’t over at 44-49 but it’s getting close. And they need more than a nostalgic breakdown on Twitter. They need the real thing back on the mound.
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