The MLB trade deadline is a month out, and if you’re hoping your favorite team goes shopping for a big name, you might want to lower expectations. According to longtime baseball insider Jim Bowden of The Athletic, there could be as few as six actual sellers willing to deal before the clock runs out.
Bowden posted a breakdown on social media that basically says the league is a traffic jam. Every American League team except the Angels and Royals is within five games of a playoff spot. The National League is even tighter. Every NL team except the Mets, Reds, Giants and Rockies is within five and a half games. That leaves exactly six teams that should be selling, based on where they stand right now.
“Every AL team is within 5 games of playoffs except the [Angels and Royals] … Every NL team is within 5.5 games of playoffs except the [Mets, Reds, Giants, Rockies] … Therefore, as of today they should be the 6 sellers … all other trades should be considered contender to contender,” Bowden wrote.
That is a weird position for a league that usually has a clear buyer-seller split by mid-June. Most years, you can comfortably point at a handful of teams that have already packed it in. Not this year. The parity is real, and it means teams that might normally unload expiring contracts are instead keeping the lights on and crossing their fingers.
Who’s Actually Dealing?
The Mets and Giants look like the two biggest names on the seller list. They are well out of it, and they have guys who can help a contender immediately. San Francisco has Luis Arraez and Robbie Ray. The Mets have Freddy Peralta. Those are the kinds of arms and bats that get moved in July, and the early whispers suggest they will be.
The Reds are the interesting one here. Cincinnati made the playoffs last year. But a rough two-month stretch has knocked them back, and now the front office has to make a call. Smaller pieces like Tyler Stephenson will probably go. The real question is about the big guys. Hunter Greene. Elly De La Cruz. Those are franchise-level talents. If ownership isn’t sold on extending them, the return package could be massive. Trading either guy would signal a full reset, not just a retool.
The Rockies and Angels round out the list, though the Angels are less of a surprise at this point. They’re stuck in the same cycle of being not quite bad enough to rebuild and not quite good enough to matter.
Things Can Change Fast
It’s still June. A lot can happen in four weeks. A couple of bad losing streaks could push a fringe team into seller territory. A surprise run could pull someone back. But as of right now, the market is thin. That means prices will be high for the few difference-makers who are actually available, and a lot of contenders might end up trading with each other instead of raiding a rebuilding team’s roster.
It sets up a deadline that could feel weirdly quiet — or suddenly frantic if a few more teams wave the white flag. We’ll know by August 3.
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