The quarterfinals are set. Four games. Eight teams. One trophy that gets heavier the closer you get to it.
Brazil and Germany are already home. That alone tells you how this World Cup has gone. But for the teams still standing in North America, the pressure is not the same for everybody. Some are playing with house money. Others feel like the whole country is staring at them through the TV screen.
Here is how the pressure stacks up from least to most going into the quarterfinals.
Switzerland
They made it past Colombia on penalties in what might be the longest game of soccer ever played. Neither team wanted to win it, honestly. Switzerland will take it though. They are in the quarterfinals. That is a good summer.
Argentina is waiting for them and Argentina is a heavy favorite. If the Swiss lose, nobody is burning anything down in Zurich. They already exceeded what most people expected.
Norway
Nobody predicted Norway would still be here in mid-July. Beating Brazil was the biggest win in the country’s soccer history. Erling Haaland has scored in 14 straight international games. He is basically inevitable at this point.
Norway have already won their first knockout game ever. Everything from here is a bonus. They will give England a fight but this is already their best World Cup by a mile.
Morocco
Morocco are carrying the flag for African soccer again. Solid defense. Fast counters. They can bother anybody on the right day. They go home as heroes no matter what happens next.
France is a brutal draw. Morocco has a bad history against them but that won’t stop the rest of the world from hoping for something wild.
Belgium
The Golden Generation looks more like pewter now. Belgium has promised a lot for years and delivered almost nothing. This is probably the last run for their older stars. They barely survived an easy group and then somehow flipped a game against Senegal that looked lost.
They have been the cat with nine lives this tournament. Spain is next and beating them would be a real achievement. A lot of neutrals are pulling for Belgium.
Spain
There is pressure on Spain because they won the Euros and expectations follow that. But they have been boring to watch. They crushed Austria in the round of 32 but went back to their slow passing game against Portugal. Watching Spain attack is like watching someone drag out the inevitable.
Lamine Yamal came in hurt and it has shown. That cooled some of the hype. Their fans expect greatness but it is hard to see them getting past France in a potential semifinal.
Argentina
This is the last dance for Lionel Messi. Four years ago he carried them all the way. Argentina started this tournament with three straight wins in the group. Then they nearly choked against Cape Verde and Egypt, winning both 3-2.
This is an old team that depends on one guy. If Messi has a bad game they are probably done. But he rarely has a bad game. His teammates want to send him off with back-to-back World Cups. The real pressure was two years ago though. This one feels like a bonus round.
France
How does France not win this thing? The squad is stacked. Five world-class forwards. Two recent Ballon d’Or winners. A coach who has already won a World Cup. Kylian Mbappe looks determined to prove he is the best player on the planet.
Paraguay tried to kick them around in the round of 16 and France handled it. Nobody has looked this dominant since Brazil in 2002 maybe. That is exactly why the pressure is real. If France throws this away it will be a massive failure.
England
England tops the list because England always tops the list. After 60 years of mostly bad World Cups the tension is brutal. Nobody talked much about England winning before the tournament started. But a couple of gritty wins have fired everything back up.
Thomas Tuchel was hired to change the country’s luck. That adds pressure. England probably has to beat the last two world champions to win the trophy. That is a brutal path. But England expects. Because England always expects.
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