Balogun’s Red Card Forces USMNT to Rewrite Its Attack Plan Against Belgium

The U.S. men’s national team walked off the pitch in the Round of 32 feeling pretty good. A 2-0 win over Bosnia-Herzegovina, a ticket to the Round of 16, and Folarin Balogun had just scored the opener. Then came the 64th minute, and Balogun saw red. Now the striker who has been the team’s most dangerous weapon this tournament is suspended for the Belgium game. That’s a problem.

Balogun has three goals and a team-high 11 shots through four matches. He’s the guy who makes defenses nervous, the one who turns half-chances into goals. Losing him against a Belgium side that just pulled off one of the gutsiest comebacks of the World Cup is not ideal. It might be the kind of loss that shifts the whole tone of a knockout match.

Who fills the void up top?

The most obvious replacement is Ricardo Pepi. The 23-year-old forward started in place of Christian Pulisic during the Australia win and got the nod against Turkiye in the final group stage game. He also came off the bench against Bosnia. Pepi hasn’t scored yet in this tournament, but he’s put five shots on frame. He’s active, he’s opportunistic, and he knows the system.

Coach Mauricio Pochettino could also go with Giovanni Reyna, who has come off the bench three times and already bagged a goal against Paraguay. Reyna brings a different kind of energy, more of a playmaking threat than a pure striker. Haji Wright is another option, especially with his size in the box. But Wright has only made one sub appearance this tournament. He’s not exactly match sharp.

Pulisic will likely have to drift toward the middle more to help compensate for Balogun’s absence. The question is whether Pochettino shifts him from his left-wing spot into the striker role in the 4-2-3-1. Either way, the U.S. is going to need to push an extra midfielder forward if they want to press like Senegal did. Senegal held Belgium scoreless for 86 minutes and scored twice. That’s the blueprint, but it’s a tough one to copy without your best forward.

Belgium is riding a wave

Belgium didn’t play clean soccer for most of their Round of 32 match against Senegal. They gave up two goals on crossing plays to Habib Diarra and Ismaila Sarr. It looked like they were headed home. Then Romelu Lukaku scored in the 86th minute, Youri Tielemans equalized in the 89th, and they won on a controversial penalty in extra time. That’s the kind of win that changes a team’s whole mentality.

They’ve scored three unanswered goals in their last 35 minutes of play. That kind of momentum doesn’t go away overnight. Belgium also knocked the U.S. out of the 2014 World Cup in the Round of 16, 2-1. That history lingers.

Fatigue shouldn’t be a major factor either. Belgium will probably ride adrenaline into the early part of this game. They like to possess the ball and build attacks slowly, which would let them control the tempo and neutralize the U.S. counterattack. If the U.S. can’t get out and run, they’re playing Belgium’s game. And without Balogun, the margin for error just got a lot thinner.