The Pittsburgh Pirates have a real problem on their hands, and it’s wearing a jersey number that used to make hitters flinch. Paul Skenes, the reigning NL Cy Young winner, got rocked again Wednesday night against the Philadelphia Phillies — seven earned runs in four innings, a career high. He hasn’t won a game since early May, and the stuff that made him untouchable last season is starting to look ordinary.
For a guy who built his reputation on triple-digit fastballs and pure intimidation on the mound, the numbers this season tell a different story. Skenes averaged just 96.3 mph with his four-seamer Wednesday, tied for the lowest single-start average of his career. And it’s not a one-night thing. According to Pirates reporter Alex Stumpf, who broke down the trend on his Book-Rule Bucs Substack, Skenes hasn’t averaged 98 mph in any start this year. Last season, that was basically his floor.
Pittsburgh has to figure out whether this is something fixable or something ominous.
The mechanics look different
Stumpf pointed out that Skenes’ arm angle has crept up a couple of degrees this season. That might not sound like much, but for a pitcher whose whole delivery is built on torque and deception, even small changes can ripple through everything. Stumpf compared it to what happened with Pirates prospect Bubba Chandler — his arm slot jumped over 10 degrees and his performance cratered until he got back to his normal release point. Skenes’ change is smaller, but the concern is real.
“The drop in velocity is concerning,” Stumpf wrote. “He claims that it’s ‘been by design’ that he’s not throwing 100 mph anymore, and I can buy that to a certain extent. It can’t be by design that his fastball velocity has dropped every month this season.”
Skenes has said the velocity dip is intentional, that he’s working on pitchability and sequencing rather than pure power. That’s a reasonable approach for a young pitcher trying to build a career. But the pattern doesn’t line up. If it was by design, the numbers would probably flatten out at a new normal. Instead, they keep sliding.
The bigger picture for Pittsburgh
There’s no reason to panic yet. Skenes is 22 years old and has all the raw talent in the world. The stuff is still there — his sweeper and splitter are elite pitches, and he can still touch 99 when he needs to. But the Pirates need him to be the guy who changes games, not the guy who gets pulled after four innings with a seven-spot on the board.
The team hasn’t said anything publicly about a potential injury, and there’s no indication Skenes is hurt. Mechanical issues are usually fixable. But Pittsburgh is in a tight spot in the NL Central race, and they can’t afford their ace to be a question mark every fifth day. July is almost here, and the Pirates need Skenes trending back toward dominance, not further away from it.
Whether this is a mechanical hiccup, a physical issue he’s downplaying, or just a rough adjustment period, the clock is ticking. And the fastball numbers aren’t waiting for anyone.
Leave a Comment