Toronto Stadium is the site of a weirdly early kickoff for a World Cup knockout game, but nobody in either camp is complaining about the time slot. Portugal and Croatia meet in the round of 32 on Friday morning, and the winner gets a date with Spain or Austria. That’s the easy part of the preview. The hard part is figuring out which version of either team actually shows up.
Both sides stumbled through group play as runners-up. Portugal finished second in Group K behind Colombia, Croatia second in Group L behind England. Neither looked dominant. Neither looked broken either. They’re the kind of teams that make you nervous if you’re a betting man, because knockout experience is a real thing and both have loads of it.
History says Portugal wins this. They’ve taken seven of the ten prior meetings and knocked Croatia out at Euro 2016 on their way to the title. But Croatia has made a habit of ignoring history. Five of their last seven World Cup knockout matches were tied after normal time. They drag you into ugly games and see if you flinch.
Ronaldo’s weird knockout numbers
Here’s the stat that’s going to follow Cristiano Ronaldo around until he finally scores in a World Cup knockout game: zero goals, zero assists across his entire career in those matches. He’s 40 now, the oldest outfield player in the tournament, and he still hasn’t done it. He bagged two against Uzbekistan in the group stage and declared ‘I’m back’ afterward, but that was against a team that wasn’t really a team. Croatia is different.
Roberto Martinez has a full squad and no injury worries. Joao Neves will be back in midfield alongside Vitinha after a rest against Colombia. Bruno Fernandes plays the 10 behind a front three of Pedro Neto, Joao Felix, and Ronaldo. Nuno Mendes and Joao Cancelo hold the fullback spots, Ruben Dias and Renato Veiga anchor the center. Diogo Costa is in goal.
Portugal’s group stage was one great win sandwiched by two flat ones. The 5-0 demolition of Uzbekistan was clinical. Then came a 1-1 draw with DR Congo where they generated 0.65 xG, and a 0-0 draw with Colombia where they faced 24 shots and managed 13 of their own. They haven’t lost in eight matches since a qualifying defeat to Ireland, but that inconsistency gives Croatia reason to believe.
Croatia’s tournament so far
Zlatko Dalic’s side opened with a 4-2 loss to England that exposed their defensive transitions. They recovered with a 1-0 win over Panama and a 2-1 victory over Ghana, the latter decided by a late corner from Luka Modric that Nikola Vlasic headed home. Modric became the oldest player to register a World Cup assist on that play, which is a nice footnote for a guy who’s basically timeless.
The big change for Croatia is Josko Gvardiol moving to left-back, which pushes Ivan Perisic further up into the attack. Modric anchors midfield with Mateo Kovacic and Petar Sucic, who scored against Ghana. Martin Baturina plays behind Ante Budimir, with Josip Stanisic, Josip Sutalo, and Marin Pongracic holding the back line. No fresh injuries after the Ghana game.
Croatia has won 11 of their last 16 matches overall. All four defeats in that stretch came against teams ranked higher in FIFA’s standings, which is the same tier Portugal sits in. They’re comfortable as underdogs. They’re comfortable in tight games. They make you uncomfortable.
The match airs on BBC One and BBC iPlayer in the UK. The rest of the world will be watching to see if Ronaldo finally breaks his knockout curse, or if Croatia drags another favorite into the deep water and holds them under.
Leave a Comment