The math says Germany dominated possession. The math says they completed more passes than any team in a World Cup first half this century. The math does not say how they lost to Paraguay on penalties in the Round of 32.
But that’s exactly what happened in Boston on Tuesday, as Julian Nagelsmann’s side crashed out of the 2026 World Cup in a 4-3 shootout loss after a 1-1 draw. Kai Havertz, Nick Woltemade and Jonathan Tah all missed from the spot. Jose Canale buried the winner for Paraguay, setting off celebrations that felt like a country just won the whole thing.
For context: Paraguay hadn’t qualified for a World Cup since 2010, when they made the quarterfinals. Germany is a four-time world champion. This was supposed to be the redemption arc after back-to-back group stage exits in 2018 and 2022. Instead, it’s a new rock bottom.
The VAR call that flipped everything
The game was already tense when it spilled into extra time. Germany thought they’d stolen it in the 102nd minute when Tah headed in a corner at the far post. But VAR spent a long time looking at it, and eventually the goal was wiped out for a foul on Paraguay keeper Orlando Gill.
No goal. No win. Just penalties.
And penalties went about as badly as they could for the Germans. Havertz missed. Woltemade missed. Tah missed. Paraguay had two misses of their own, but Canale kept his composure and finished the job.
The German players dropped to the turf. The Paraguay fans, vastly outnumbered in the stands, pounded their drums and screamed. It was mayhem.
This is also the biggest win in Paraguay’s World Cup history, which says something about the gap Nagelsmann was supposed to have closed.
First half stats that looked like a typo
Here’s how lopsided the first half really was: Germany completed 244 passes. Paraguay completed 31. That’s the largest pass differential in a World Cup first half since 1966, and Germany still went into the break trailing 1-0.
Paraguay’s goal came from a quick move down the right side, with Miguel Almiron back from suspension and Julio Enciso powering home a header. It was Paraguay’s first ever knockout stage goal in a World Cup. They made it count.
Germany controlled possession all half but couldn’t manage a single shot on target. Zero. All that passing, all that pressure, and nothing to show for it.
Havertz finally equalized in the 54th minute, glancing in a Florian Wirtz cross. Wirtz delivered almost the same ball in the 78th minute, but this time Gill blocked Havertz’s header. That was probably Germany’s best chance before the VAR drama in extra time.
Nagelsmann’s job now in serious doubt
Nagelsmann was already under pressure coming into this tournament. He’s 38 years old and became the youngest coach in a World Cup knockout stage in 40 years, but that milestone means nothing now. Speculation about his future will only get louder after this exit.
He went with an offensive lineup, giving Deniz Undav his first start after the forward put up three goals and two assists in the group stage. Undav had a curled shot early that looked dangerous, but nothing came of it. The tactical risk didn’t pay off.
Germany now faces a full-blown crisis. Three straight World Cups without getting past the round of 16. The last time they won a knockout game was 2014, when they won the whole tournament. That feels like a very long time ago.
Paraguay will face either France or Sweden in the next round. They’ve already beaten one giant. Nobody should be surprised if they go after another.
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