The group stage is done. Forty-eight nations have been trimmed to 32, and now it’s win or go home. No more second chances, no more playing it safe. The World Cup 2026 knockout rounds kick off this week, and we’re updating our power rankings accordingly.
Some teams surged late. Others stumbled when it mattered least. A few haven’t been tested yet. Here’s where everyone stands heading into the bracket.
1. France
Kylian Mbappe, Ousmane Dembele, Michael Olise. Pick your poison. Dembele bagged a hat trick in a 4-1 demolition of Norway, and the reigning Ballon d’Or winner looks every bit the part. This is the most dangerous attacking trio in the tournament, maybe in any tournament.
The only question? France hasn’t faced a top-tier opponent yet. Norway sat their starters and basically waved the white flag. So we still don’t know how Les Bleus handle real pressure. But the talent is undeniable and the form is there.
2. Argentina
Lionel Messi came off the bench against Jordan, scored 20 minutes later, and now has eight of Argentina’s 10 goals in this World Cup. The GOAT stuff is getting almost routine at this point.
But there’s a quiet concern here. That kind of reliance on one player works until it doesn’t. France spreads the load across three elite attackers. Argentina basically has one, at least for now. That gap could matter in the later rounds.
3. Brazil
Brazil is the biggest riser in these rankings. They looked flat against Morocco in the opener, then rattled off a 6-0 aggregate beating of Haiti and Scotland. Two respectable sides, handled comfortably.
Next up is Japan, a team that’s organized, patient, and frustrating to play against. If Brazil keeps playing their free-flowing brand of football through that test, a final appearance starts looking very real.
4. Spain
Spain bounced back from a 0-0 draw with Cape Verde by beating someone 2-0, but nobody’s sure if they have another gear. Cape Verde turned out to be better than advertised, which makes that draw look less alarming. Still, the ceiling is uncertain.
A potential Round of 16 matchup with Portugal looms, and that should tell us everything. If Spain can handle Cristiano Ronaldo’s squad — which has looked flat — the path to the semis opens up nicely.
5. Netherlands
The Dutch went 2-0 after a draw with Japan in their opener. Businesslike. Efficient. Ronald Koeman has this team playing smart, structured football with game-breakers at every level — Virgil van Dijk, Frenkie de Jong, Cody Gakpo.
Morocco awaits in the knockout round, and that’s a tricky draw. Morocco shocked some big teams in 2022. But the Netherlands looks poised for a deep run if they get past that first test.
6. USA
The USMNT keeps climbing, partly because they’ve looked solid and partly because other teams haven’t. They played Turkey tough for 90-plus minutes with a mostly backup lineup. If Mauricio Pochettino had rolled out his real starting 11, that might have been a blowout.
Bosnia and Herzegovina should be manageable. Then comes Belgium. That’s the measuring stick. Beat a top European side, and suddenly the dreams feel real.
7. Norway
Sitting all the starters against France was either brilliant strategy or a serious gamble. They get Ivory Coast in the Round of 32, then either Brazil or Japan. Is that easier than Sweden and Germany? Hard to say right now.
This team lives and dies with Erling Haaland. Martin Odegaard is the other variable — he’s been inconsistent, but if he shows up big, Norway becomes a problem for anybody.
8. England
England beat Panama 2-0. Did it impress anyone? Not really. Thomas Tuchel left Trent Alexander-Arnold, Phil Foden, and Cole Palmer at home, and the offense looks stale around Harry Kane.
If England doesn’t at least make the final, Tuchel is going to face serious questions about those roster decisions. The players he brought instead of those three need to step up, and fast.
9. Portugal
Portugal played Colombia to a 0-0 draw, and honestly, Colombia probably deserved the win. A goal from Davinson Sanchez was ruled out by millimeters for offside. Portugal looked flat, unmotivated, lackluster.
This isn’t just a Cristiano Ronaldo problem anymore, though it’d be nice to see him get more minutes off the bench. The whole squad has that Roberto Martinez vibe — organized but uninspiring. That’s a dangerous way to enter knockout play.
10. Germany
Germany lost a meaningless match to Ecuador to close the group stage, but they looked dangerous in the two wins that mattered before that. Now it’s knockout time, and experience starts to carry more weight.
Germany has plenty of that. More than Japan, more than Morocco. Sometimes pedigree is enough to get through tight games. We’ll find out soon.
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