Remember when Scotland had a 42% chance of reaching the World Cup knockout round? That was 24 hours ago. Now they’re down to 0.07%. That’s not a typo.
The Tartan Army took a 3-0 beating from Brazil on Wednesday, following a 1-0 loss to Morocco and a 1-0 win over Haiti. That Brazil result was the dagger. They needed scenarios to break their way over several groups, and instead got a mixed bag at best. Now Steve Clarke’s side sits 10th out of the 12 third-place teams. They need to climb two spots before June 28. It’s not impossible. It’s just very, very close to impossible.
The small favors that already fell through
Scotland needed four specific outcomes to go their way. The first was Uruguay losing to Spain in Group H. That happened — Uruguay are out. Iraq also didn’t beat Senegal, which helped. But that’s where the good news stops.
Senegal didn’t just beat Iraq. They ran them off the pitch, moving up to fifth in the third-place rankings and bumping Scotland down a spot. Then Egypt and Iran tied 1-1. That meant only half of the first four scenarios worked. Scotland went from a long shot to a prayer.
What has to happen now
Scotland’s path requires three specific results. Not the general kind. Specific.
First: Ghana has to beat Croatia by at least three goals. That’s a big ask. Ghana went defensive against England and held them to a draw, but needed 96 minutes to score against Panama. Dominating Croatia by a three-goal margin? That’s not their style.
Second: Algeria, the other third-place team ahead of Scotland, needs to lose by at least three goals. Their opponent is a team that recorded its first World Cup win since 1990 in the opening match against Jordan. That team is Algeria’s opponent. They have to give up at least three and lose. But Algeria is the more dangerous side here and will try to leapfrog Austria in Group J for an automatic knockout spot.
Third: DR Congo must miss the knockout round for the first time in their history. Their opponent is Uzbekistan, one of the weakest teams at this tournament. Uzbekistan lost 3-1 to Colombia and got crushed 5-0 by Portugal. They’re already eliminated. But DR Congo has history on the line too. Unlike Scotland, they control their own fate.
When you add all that up, the 0.07% chance makes a weird kind of sense. Scotland is back at the World Cup for the first time in 28 years, and they might be gone in about 48 hours.
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