The 2026 World Cup group phase is winding down, and some of the biggest names in soccer are staring at a real possibility of going home early. The expanded format — with 48 teams and a path for third-place finishers to advance — was supposed to make it easier for the heavyweights. But for five teams with serious pedigree, it hasn’t worked out that way.
Here are the most surprising squads in genuine danger of an early exit.
Senegal is out of top-two spots but still has a lifeline
Senegal hasn’t played badly at all. That’s the weird part. They lost 3-1 to tournament favorites France in their opener, then dropped a tight match to an Erling Haaland-led Norway. Zero points from two games, and mathematically they can no longer finish first or second in Group I.
But they’re not dead yet. The third-place pathway is still open. Senegal sits at minus three on goal difference but has Iraq — a side that has scored once all tournament and conceded seven — in their final match. A comfortable win could flip their GD into positive territory. History suggests a plus-one or better from third place usually gets through. It’s not a great position, but it’s a position.
Belgium looks like a golden generation that forgot to change the oil
Belgium has managed exactly one goal in 180 minutes of soccer. They looked slow and predictable against Iran, settling for a draw that leaves them on two points. Their final game is against New Zealand, who have scored three times as many goals as the Belgians in this tournament.
Kevin De Bruyne and company need a win to feel safe. Another draw might still get them through as one of the better third-place teams, but that’s a gamble. Lose, and the golden generation officially goes home with a whimper.
Scotland faces Brazil with everything on the line
Scotland is currently ranked as the second-best third-place team in the tournament. That’s the good news. The bad news is that their final group game is against Brazil.
Steve Clarke’s squad needs at least a draw to guarantee advancement. If they lose, it becomes a math problem. Right now, projections say a minus two goal difference on three points gives Scotland about a 69 percent chance of going through. That drops to 47 percent at minus three and 29 percent at minus four. Scotland is currently on zero GD, so a 2-0 loss would be survivable. But they’re one of the earliest groups to finish, meaning they’ll kick off without knowing exactly what they need. Annoying.
What stings more is that they couldn’t beat Haiti by more than a single goal. That margin might matter now.
Uruguay has to survive Spain or face Argentina
Uruguay is not the monster it was a decade ago, but they still entered Group H expecting to advance. Two draws have them sitting second, but their final match is against a Spain team that has finally woken up. Spain hasn’t qualified yet, so they’ll come to win.
A draw gets Uruguay through. A loss probably sends them home. If they do sneak into the knockout round, the likely reward is a date with Argentina. Not exactly a consolation prize.
Ecuador gambled against Curacao and lost. Now they need a miracle vs. Germany
Every team in Group F looked at Curacao as the must-win game. Ecuador got one point. Curacao’s goalkeeper Eloy Room made a handful of saves that might end up defining Ecuador’s entire tournament.
Now Ecuador sits on one point with a minus one goal difference. Their final match is against Germany — a team that has already qualified and might rest starters, but is still Germany. Ecuador needs a win or they’re done. That’s the whole equation.
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