The San Diego Padres are in a weird spot. They’ve got a lineup that’s hitting .218 as a team, dead last in baseball. They’ve got a farm system that’s thinner than it’s been in years. And they’ve got their eyes on Byron Buxton, who’s currently third in the majors with 23 home runs. So the question isn’t really whether they want him. It’s whether they can get him without wrecking what’s left of their future.
Buxton is 32. He’s hitting .275 this season, which is fine. But the real draw is the power. The Padres rank 21st in homers right now, and Buxton alone would give them a serious jolt. The problem is that Buxton also has a full no-trade clause, and according to ESPN’s Kiley McDaniel and Jeff Passan, none of this matters if Buxton decides he doesn’t want to leave Minnesota.
“All of this is moot, and Buxton will drop off the list, if he indicates he will use his no-trade protection to reject any potential deal,” they wrote. “Buxton’s loyalty to Minnesota is admirable, but at 32, he also wants to win. And the Twins aren’t doing that this year. Barring a spending spree over the winter, that might not happen next year, either.”
So the door might be open. But walking through it won’t be cheap.
The Elephant in the Room
Buxton has played more than 126 games exactly once in his career. That was 2017. Since then his season totals go: 28, 87, 39, 61, 92, 85, 102, and 126. He’s on pace to clear 120 games this year, but that’s with the caveat that the inevitable something hasn’t happened yet. Every year it feels like it’s coming. And for a team trading away young talent, that’s a real gamble.
But the underlying scouting report still reads like a first-round pick. McDaniel and Passan described it like this: “elite runner and defender with loud bat speed.” The power came later than expected but it’s here now. The only knock has been durability.
What San Diego Can Actually Offer
The Padres don’t have a deep farm system anymore. They traded a lot of it away to win now. But they do have two highly regarded catching prospects. The less heralded of the two is Ty Harvey, a 19-year-old who MLB.com ranks as the No. 6 prospect in the organization. He’s 6-foot-2 with strength and power, good hands behind the plate, and above-average arm strength. The hit tool is the question mark, but the upside is real.
Harvey alone probably doesn’t get it done. The Twins will want a legitimate pitching prospect too. That’s where Kash Mayfield comes in. He’s a 6-foot-4 lefty whose fastball sat 92-95 in his amateur spring before dropping a bit in the California League. His changeup is considered a true plus pitch. The slider has slurvy movement that plays better against righties. MLB.com notes that he walked 10.9 percent of batters in A-ball, but the delivery is repeatable and there’s reason to believe his control will improve as he matures.
The Twins will probably ask for a third piece. A name that might come up is Kavares Tears, a 23-year-old outfielder with real power but a glaring weakness against changeups. That flaw could limit him at the big-league level, which makes him the kind of prospect the Padres might be willing to part with.
At this point it’s all speculative. But the math is pretty clear. Buxton fits a need. The price is high but not impossible. And for once, the biggest question might be what Buxton actually wants.
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