Astros Could Flip the AL Deadline by Selling, and That’s What Rival Execs Expect

The Houston Astros are sitting at 49-54, three games back in the AL West and four games out of a wild-card spot. On paper, that’s still in striking distance. But Fangraphs gives them a 16 percent chance of making the playoffs, and that number has rival executives paying close attention to what happens in Houston over the next few days.

According to ESPN’s Buster Olney, some of those rival execs believe the Astros could have a more impactful deadline if they chose to sell rather than buy. And the pieces they’d be dangling — Jeremy Peña, Isaac Paredes, maybe others — could reshape the entire trade market.

“The one team that could change that equation dramatically would be the Astros, who have a bunch of interesting players who would shift everything,” Olney wrote. “Some rival executives believe Houston could absolutely crush it in this market if they dangled Jeremy Peña, Isaac Paredes and others.”

Peña has been in trade rumors all summer. He’s under team control through 2027, and the Astros haven’t been able to lock him up to a long-term deal. That uncertainty has fueled speculation that Houston might move him now rather than lose him later. In 55 games this season, the shortstop is hitting .293 with eight homers, 27 RBIs and eight steals. Those numbers don’t jump off the page, but Peña was an All-Star in 2025 when he slashed .304/.354/.471 with 17 home runs and 20 stolen bases. He’s 28 and in his prime. Contenders would pay up.

Paredes is in a similar spot. He’s also set to hit free agency after 2027, and the Astros have a decision to make on his long-term future. Since arriving in Houston in 2025, Paredes has hit .257 with 33 home runs and 106 RBIs. This year he’s at .260 with 13 homers and 53 RBIs through 96 games. Not elite power numbers, but solid. And he’s still only 26.

Neither player would come cheap. The Astros aren’t going to dump salary just to dump it. But if the front office decides to pivot toward a rebuild — or retool — dangling Peña and Paredes would bring back a haul of young talent. That could accelerate a rebuild faster than adding a rental bat at the deadline ever would.

So far, everything coming out of Houston sounds like they’re still trying to push forward. But 16 percent odds don’t lie. Neither do rival executives watching closely. If the Astros decide to sell, they could own this deadline.