The 2024 season is effectively over for the New York Mets. They hit the All-Star Break at 40-57, second to last in the NL Wild Card race, and David Stearns has already started fielding calls. The big question isn’t whether the Mets will sell — it’s how aggressively they’ll admit their own mistakes. And the biggest mistake on the roster right now might be Freddy Peralta.
This isn’t what the Mets planned when they traded for Peralta last winter. They sent two of their top prospects — shortstop Jett Williams and pitcher Brandon Sproat — to Milwaukee in exchange for the right-hander and reliever Tobias Myers. The idea was simple: Peralta would slot in as the new ace, giving the rotation a reliable frontline arm with years of team control left. Stearns knew Peralta well from his time in Milwaukee. It looked like a savvy, low-risk high-upside move.
Instead, it’s been a disaster.
Peralta has started 20 games this season. His ERA sits at 4.66. He has completed seven innings exactly once. A 10-run meltdown against the Phillies in June is dragging his numbers down, but there aren’t many quality starts hiding in there either. He looks like a mid-rotation arm at best, not a guy you build a staff around. The Mets gambled on a breakout and got regression instead.
Now the question is whether another team wants to bet on a rebound.
The Mets won’t get back the prospect package they sent to Milwaukee. That’s not happening. But if they can recoup even one of those top-100 guys — say, a near-MLB infielder to replace the depth they traded away — that would be considered a win. Especially since Tobias Myers has actually been useful in the bullpen. The math is ugly but not hopeless.
The trouble is finding a partner. Contenders with rotation needs — the Dodgers, Yankees, Rangers, Mariners — all have better options available or cheaper rentals to chase. Nobody is lining up to pay a premium for a pitcher with a 4.66 ERA and an expiring contract who hasn’t shown he can handle a pennant race. The Cubs already grabbed David Peterson from the Mets. The market for Peralta is thin.
The best fit might be the Padres. San Diego is 3.5 games out of the final Wild Card spot and desperate for rotation help with Dylan Cease struggling and the Dodgers pulling away in the division. The Padres have a history of making big swings at the deadline — they gave up a haul for Mason Miller last year. Shortstop Jorge Quintana, a top-10 prospect in San Diego’s system, could be the kind of return that makes this trade worth it for New York.
There’s another option, of course: sign Peralta to a long-term extension and hope he figures it out. But after this season, with the payroll already bloated and the roster full of holes, committing big money to a starter with one good half in his last three years feels like malpractice. Stearns is too smart to double down on a bad bet.
The Mets are going to sell. They need pitching, hitting, and a front office reset. Moving Peralta is the first logical step. It won’t be pretty, and it won’t fix everything. But it’s the move they have to make.
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