The Denver Nuggets walked into this offseason with a clear problem. They had too much money tied up in too few players and a roster that just got bounced in the first round by the Timberwolves. That was bad enough. But a month into free agency, the situation has somehow gotten more tangled, and the franchise is running out of obvious moves.
The Nuggets waived Jonas Valanciunas. That helped, but only a little. They’re still roughly $7.8 million under the second apron, which is basically walking a tightrope with no net. And they haven’t even addressed the contract situations for Peyton Watson and Spencer Jones yet. Tim Hardaway Jr. is already gone, signing with Miami. Bruce Brown Jr. might be next out the door. The depth the Nuggets spent last season trying to rebuild is evaporating in real time.
The Draft Tax Nobody Wants to Pay
There’s a weird irony in all of this. The Nuggets are getting punished for drafting well. They hit on Nikola Jokic at 41. They found Jamal Murray at seven. Christian Braun was a first-round pick who developed into a rotation player. Michael Porter Jr. was a lottery pick who grew into a legit starter. But the second apron is designed to penalize teams that pay their own guys, and Denver is Exhibit A of how that system works in practice.
Porter is already gone, traded to Brooklyn for Cam Johnson in a move that was as much about cap relief as basketball. Now the Nuggets owe the Thunder two future first-round picks, and their 2032 pick belongs to the Nets from that same deal. The margin for error is basically zero.
Watson Is the Guy. Can They Keep Him?
Peyton Watson broke out last season. He averaged 14.6 points, nearly five boards, and just under a steal and a block per game. He shot 49 percent from the field and 41 percent from three. He looked like the third scorer Denver has been missing around Jokic and Murray. Any extension for Watson probably starts at $20 million a year. The Nuggets are $7.8 million under the second apron. You see the problem.
Spencer Jones made himself indispensable too, starting 37 games and giving Denver the kind of defensive versatility and floor spacing that teams overpay for in free agency. Jones has already acknowledged he might end up somewhere else depending on how things shake out. Losing him would sting. Losing Watson would be worse. But keeping both might mean blowing past the second apron, which the Nuggets have shown no appetite for doing.
Braun’s Contract Is the Anchor
Christian Braun is signed for $125 million over five years. That’s a lot of money for a guy who regressed in the 2025-26 season, especially in the Timberwolves series where he never looked comfortable. Most Nuggets fans would rather keep Watson than Braun right now. But moving Braun’s deal is borderline impossible. Denver doesn’t have the draft capital to sweeten a trade. They have three tradeable second-round picks and that’s about it.
The signings they’ve made so far don’t inspire a lot of confidence either. Marvin Bagley III can score in the paint when he’s locked in, but he doesn’t defend, doesn’t space the floor, and doesn’t create for others. Tyus Jones looked washed last season. Having him as the primary backup to Jamal Murray is a gamble, and not a smart one.
The Real Problem Is Coming Next Year
Even if Denver finds a way to keep Watson and Jones, the clock is ticking. Jokic becomes a free agent next offseason and will command a massive contract. That’s going to eat up even more cap space and make it harder to build a competitive roster around him. The Nuggets are basically staring at a two-year window where they have to win or risk their superstar thinking about leaving.
The easiest solution would be for ownership to just accept the second apron penalty for one season, keep the core together, and show Jokic they’re still serious. But so far, the team hasn’t signaled they’re willing to do that. And the longer they wait, the more the roster gets picked apart. CBA changes could come down the road that loosen some of these restrictions. But that’s a hope, not a plan. Right now, the Nuggets are stuck.
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