Let’s just say it upfront: the NFC East is a two-team division and it’s not even close. The Commanders have a quarterback and some defensive pieces but the roster is full of holes. The Giants are starting over with Jaxson Dart and a new coach. They’ll be lucky to sniff .500.
The real question is whether the Eagles can hold off Dallas. And right now, it looks like the Cowboys are the team with the better path.
The offense should be a problem for everyone else
Dak Prescott is playing for a contract year in all but name. He threw 36 touchdowns in 2023 and 4,902 yards in 2019. This could be the season where both numbers climb. If the coaching staff lets him throw from the 1-yard line instead of handing it off, 40 touchdowns is in range.
CeeDee Lamb and George Pickens are going to eat. The Cowboys averaged 27.7 points per game in 2025. That number should jump to 30 or more with this receiving group. Ryan Flournoy as the third option would make the whole thing ridiculous. The offensive line is solid, the running game is above average, and there’s no obvious weak link.
Defense has a real chance to bounce back
Last year’s unit gave up 30.1 points per game. That was brutal. The only way to go is up. If defensive coordinator Christian Parker holds up in his first year calling the shots, this group could drop into the low 20s. That would put them in the top half of the league.
It’s not complicated. They need Quinnen Williams to keep eating up space, Kenny Clark to have something left, and DeMarvion Overshown to stay on the field. They also need one guy off the edge — Rashan Gary, Donovan Ezeiruaku, or Malachi Lawrence — to hit double-digit sacks. And rookie Caleb Downs has to play like the guy everyone thought he was coming out of college. If he’s in the mix for Defensive Rookie of the Year, the Cowboys are probably winning 12 to 14 games.
The Eagles traded away their biggest weapon
Philadelphia dealt AJ Brown this offseason. That alone doesn’t kill them, but it makes everything harder. Brown was the reason the Eagles controlled the division the last few years. Jalen Hurts now has to prove he can carry the passing game without that safety valve. Saquon Barkley is another year older. The offensive line is still elite, but the margin for error is gone.
DeVonta Smith has three 1,000-yard seasons in five years, but a lot of that production came with defenses worrying about Brown on the other side. Now he’s the guy. Behind him, they need either rookie Makai Lemon or Dontayvion Wicks to step up. Wicks hasn’t cracked 600 yards since his rookie year.
The Eagles’ defense could keep them in the race. If it hits its ceiling, the Thanksgiving Day game between these two teams becomes the season’s biggest matchup. But right now, Dallas has more firepower and a defense with less ground to make up.
The Commanders and Giants are watching from the outside. This is the Cowboys’ division to lose.
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