The Mets are in last place in the NL East and the trade deadline is less than two months away. That usually means one thing: a fire sale. But if New York was hoping to get a decent return for Freddy Peralta, the latest buzz from league insiders suggests they might need to lower their expectations.
Peralta’s name has been floating around trade rumors for weeks. It makes sense on paper. He’s a two-time All-Star with a track record of dominance. But the numbers this year tell a different story. Through 16 starts, the right-hander owns a 4.83 ERA and a 1.389 WHIP. Both marks are the second-worst of his career since 2018. He’s struck out 83 batters in 85.2 innings, which sounds fine until you realize his strikeout rate is down sharply from previous seasons.
The Athletic’s trade deadline big board 1.0 had a brutally honest take from four insiders — Tim Britton, Johnny Flores Jr., Chad Jennings and Eno Sarris. Their assessment? Peralta’s name value might still be carrying more weight than his actual performance warrants.
“It’s possible that there’s more name value here than actual quality on the field,” they wrote. “The artist formerly known as Fastball Freddie is showing a four-year low in fastball velocity, and his overall stuff is down as measured by Stuff+, swinging-strike rate, and strikeout rate.”
That’s not exactly ringing endorsement material. And they didn’t stop there.
“Right now, his peripherals suggest more of an average major-league starter than a guy that a contender needs to have in a playoff game. He’s gone on some pretty legendary streaks in the past when something clicks with a secondary, though.”
The Mets acquired Peralta from the Brewers in a big offseason trade that sent top prospects Jett Williams and Brandon Sproat to Milwaukee along with Tobias Myers. At the time, it looked like a smart all-in move to bolster the rotation. But Peralta has been subpar, to put it mildly. His fastball velocity is at a four-year low. His swinging-strike rate is down. Teams that might have considered him a No. 2 or 3 starter are now viewing him more as an innings-eater with upside.
Still, the guy is only 30 years old. He’s shown in the past that he can go on dominant runs when something clicks with his secondary pitches. A contender could talk themselves into a rental who might find his groove in a new environment. But right now, Peralta’s trade value is trending in the wrong direction.
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